卧底manbetx20客户端下载 学家

What we can and can’t say about what we do and don’t know
你是一个杀伐果决的“河流人”吗?

Sometimes trying to think through the probabilities is a clarifying exercise, and sometimes it offers nothing more than false reassurance
有时,试图思考概率能帮我们澄清事实,有时它只会提供虚假的保证。

Earlier in the summer, the Democratic party and its supporters faced a difficult decision: should they gently but firmly sideline President Joe Biden from the 2024 ticket? There were plenty of reasons to agonise over the decision: loyalty to Biden; the daunting practicalities of the switch; fear of the chaos that might ensue; nervousness that the likely replacement, Biden’s vice-president Kamala Harris, wasn’t up to the job.

今年夏初,民主党及其支持者面临一个艰难的决定:他们是否应该温和但坚定地将乔•拜登(Joe Biden)总统从2024年的候选人名单中剔除?有许多原因让人犹豫不决:对拜登的忠诚;转换的实际困难;担心可能引发的混乱;以及对拜登的副总统卡玛拉•哈里斯(Kamala Harris)能否胜任的担忧。

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