There is a famous joke about a frog on the banks of the River Jordan. A scorpion asks for a ride across. “Why would I do that?” says the frog. “If you get on my back you will sting me.” The scorpion explains that he, too, would drown. Reassured the frog carries him, until halfway, the scorpion stings the frog. “Why?” cries the frog, “Now we are both doomed.” Because, comes back the reply, “this is the Middle East.”
It is now a year since Hamas triggered this latest cycle of violence. For Israel, the stakes have grown as its focus has shifted from Gaza to Lebanon. Last week, it inflicted a major blow by killing Hizbollah’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah. Nasrallah made his name in 2006 when the Iran-backed paramilitary group fought Israel to a standstill. His success in exposing Israel’s vulnerabilities made him a hero around the Arab world, with Sunni as well as Shia, assuring him an exalted place among Iran’s partners and strengthening his position as the vital powerbroker in Lebanese politics.
Yet Nasrallah got caught in the tensions between his Iranian and Lebanese roles. He was held responsible by many for Lebanon’s chronic economic misery and political instability while Hizbollah’s position as the most prominent member of the Iranian-orchestrated “axis of resistance” took precedence.