A recent feature of the FT’s annual predictions has been that what was once seen as a light-hearted exercise has increasingly had to grapple with issues of war and peace. This year our writers offer predictions on conflicts in Ukraine, the Middle East, Sudan — and another kind of war, of tariffs. Readers may disagree, but the scenarios aim to be plausible. Our chief economics commentator Martin Wolf makes a call on US interest rates, and we have lighter fare including where bitcoin prices might go, AI agents, and a revival (or not) of the CD. Donald Trump’s return to the White House means the US president looms large.
Our collective performance last year was not among our best, with five wrong answers. Following polling at the time, we discounted Trump’s re-election chances. Japanese interest rates did rise above zero; investors didn’t move back into bonds as expected; X didn’t go bankrupt; and there was no deal, yet, to return the Parthenon marbles to Greece.
Single minds, it seems, can sometimes beat 20: two entrants to our reader competition got all 20 questions right, and the overall winner, Ercole Durini of London, was even spot on with the tiebreaker. Readers are invited to submit their own answers again this year, with their real name and email. Happy New Year! Neil Buckley