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Currency investors grow wary of bets on Trump tariffs

FX volatility expectations fall after traders ‘burned’ trying to react to US president’s trade threats

Currency markets are increasingly dismissive of Donald Trump’s tariff threats, raising the risk of big swings if the US president follows through on his promise to hit China, Canada and Mexico with levies next week.

Trump’s proposal to bring in levies against the EU and China unsettled the euro and currencies of other US trading partners on Thursday. But the falls were less dramatic than some of the upheavals seen in recent weeks when he began spelling out his plans.

Measures of expected short-term volatility in currencies such as the euro and the Mexican peso have fallen since the inauguration in January.

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