It is not hard to think of reasons why the “Trump Peace Agreement” will fail. The first stage requires the release of Hamas’s hostages and Israel’s prisoners, a very partial withdrawal by the Israel Defense Forces, and more aid getting into Gaza. Although the living hostages are thankfully now freed, predictably Hamas has been unable to locate the remains of all the deceased. Aid convoys must navigate their way through rubble full of unexploded ordnance. Hamas is still in charge of Gaza City and is, again predictably in the absence of any stronger force, settling scores and dealing with opposing factions. If they manage to hold on to their weapons then Israel will have an excuse to keep the IDF in place, ready to renew hostilities.
要解释“特朗普和平协议”为何可能失败，并不难。第一阶段要求释放哈马斯(Hamas)的人质和以色列的囚犯、以色列国防军(Israel Defense Forces, IDF)进行非常有限的撤军，并让更多援助进入加沙。尽管幸存的人质如今已获释，但可预见的是，哈马斯仍未能找到所有遇难者的遗骸。援助车队必须在布满未爆弹药的瓦砾间穿行。哈马斯仍控制着加沙市(Gaza City)，并且在缺乏更强有力力量的情况下（这也在意料之中）清算旧账、打击反对派。如果他们设法保住武器，以色列就会有理由让以色列国防军继续驻留，随时准备重启敌对行动。