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‘What will happen to house prices next year?’ — it’s a tricky question

For all their faults, house price predictions are not as useless as you might expect

It’s party season and the question I am asked the most — usually within about 35 seconds of meeting someone — is: “So, Neal, what’s going to happen to house prices next year?”

I used to ask a series of counter questions about where the person lived and in what, when they bought and what they paid for it, considering they’re all crucial in determining what might happen to the perceived value of their property in the next 12 months. But people tended to glaze over, so now I sort of shrug and say “up . . . ish.” This normally leaves the other person looking relieved.

It turns out the expert forecasters for 2026 feel pretty much the same as me — Nationwide, Savills, Rightmove and Hamptons all think the average property price will finish next year between 2 and 4 per cent higher than they started it. HM Treasury publishes a summary of independent forecasts, where the City forecasters are slightly more bullish with an average of 3.2 per cent compared with 2 per cent for the economic consultancies. Meanwhile, the OBR has gone for 2.8 per cent (at Q4 2026).

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