Will the US and Israeli war on Iran soon be over? This question has to be answered if one is to address its possible economic consequences. But this depends on the answers to two other questions. Does Robert Armstrong’s “Taco” (“Trump always chickens out”) coinage apply here, or not? And, second, would an end to the war for Donald Trump mean it has also ended for Iran, Israel or both? If these two combatants, for whom the struggle is existential, fight on, the carnage visited on the Gulf could continue, too.
A part of the difficulty is that it is impossible to know what Trump wants. Maybe he has little idea himself. Thus, on Monday, the president told a press conference that the war will be over “very soon”, but not this week. Yet two days earlier, he wrote on Truth Social that “there will be no deal with Iran except UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER! After that, and the selection of a GREAT & ACCEPTABLE Leader(s), we, and many of our wonderful and very brave allies and partners, will work tirelessly to bring Iran back from the brink of destruction.”