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Trump’s ‘shock and war’ makes this economic crisis different

Conflict with Iran will leave deeper and more lasting scars than last year’s tariffs crisis

The writer, an FT contributing editor, is a former chief economist at the Bank of England

Since the US and Israel attacked Iran last month, economies and financial markets have been adrift in a storm.

The economic epicentre of this conflict has been energy. The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz has deprived the world of a fifth of its oil supply, approaching 20mn barrels a day. This makes it the largest-ever shock to the global oil market and has caused wild intraday swings in oil prices and large-scale releases of strategic oil reserves, neither of which have historical precedent.

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