Donald Trump came into office as the self-styled “Tariff Man” superhero who would tear apart global trade and refashion it under the muscular doctrine of America First. He seems likely instead to be remembered as the supervillain “Epic Fury”, who set the Middle East ablaze and endangered worldwide prosperity and the US’s standing with it.
A year on from his supposed “liberation day”, which imposed sweeping tariffs across the board, Trump has certainly delivered a rupture from the multilateral system which came before. But rather than regressing to the protectionism of the 1930s — not least because other countries have declined to join in — he seems to have stumbled back only to the early years of President Richard Nixon.
The troubles with Trump’s tariff offensive could have been predicted (and were, by some) before they began. He has multiple, often contradictory, objectives — eight by my count — and the US is simply not big enough in global trade to have the leverage to achieve them. Even before the Supreme Court ruled his use of emergency tariffs illegal in February, Trump had backed off at key moments because of pressures domestic (preserving car supply chains with Canada and Mexico) and international (China’s use of rare earths blackmail to force him to back down).