If you live in Phoenix, can you put down money on the outcome of the 2026 Arizona governor’s race? What about a resident of Hartford who wants to bet on a University of Connecticut basketball game?
Until recently, the answers were pretty clear. Arizona has banned election-related wagers for more than a century, and Connecticut forbade bets on local college teams when it legalised other forms of sports gambling in 2021.
But national prediction markets including Kalshi and Polymarket have clouded the picture significantly. These rapidly growing businesses offer “events contracts” that match customers who want to take the opposite side of binary outcomes. Some bets turn on share prices and interest rates so they look very much like investments. Others focus on Oscar winners and sporting events and feel a lot more like gambling.