The demographic landslide defining our era is gaining speed — and terrain.
In more than two-thirds of the world’s 195 countries, the average number of children born to each woman has fallen below the “replacement rate” of 2.1 that keeps populations stable without immigration. In 66 countries, the average is now closer to one than to two. In some, the most common number of children born to each woman is zero.
Both the pace and the breadth of the decline are defying expectations. Just five years ago the UN predicted there would be 350,000 births in South Korea in 2023. That was a 50 per cent overestimate: the real figure was 230,000.
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