Economists expect the inflation shock driven by the Iran war to be less severe than the surge in prices during the 2022 energy crisis, according to an FT analysis.
A FT review of forecasts collated by Consensus Economics shows that inflation projections have on average increased by 0.8 percentage points since the Middle East conflict began in late February. This is far below the 2.3 percentage point rise in economists’ forecasts three months after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, which triggered a race in Europe to secure alternative gas supplies.
Downgrades to global economic growth projections have also so far been smaller than at a similar stage of the 2022 crisis, the analysis shows.
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