A decisive win for Armenia’s pro-western leader Nikol Pashinyan in parliamentary elections on Sunday is another sign of Russia’s shrinking global influence since Vladimir Putin’s disastrous full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The vote was Armenia’s most important since it gained independence from the Soviet Union in 1991. It was a plebiscite on the peace process with neighbouring Azerbaijan and on Pashinyan’s push for closer ties with Europe and the US without breaking altogether with Moscow. To tilt the race in favour of the pro-Russian opposition and ensure Armenia’s fealty, the Kremlin closed off imports of Armenian produce, threatened Ukraine-style intervention and deployed its standard disinformation techniques. It failed.
Putin’s delusional war of conquest in Ukraine was supposed to return Russia to imperial great power status. Instead, Moscow’s global reach is on the wane. It has turned supposed Ukrainian brothers into unyielding enemies. It has lost friendly or pliant regimes in Syria and Venezuela. Cuba may be next. Russian fighters are on the retreat in Mali. Central Asian states’ trade with Russia has increased but their governments are also busy diversifying their diplomatic ties. Moscow’s so-called “no limits” partnership with China is in reality one of increasing dependency with Russia the junior partner.
Russia’s grip on its South Caucasus satellite was broken in two military defeats that Armenia suffered against Azerbaijan over the disputed territory of Nagorno-Karabakh. In the second in 2023, Azerbaijani forces seized the whole of the enclave, forcing out its 100,000 Armenian inhabitants, in effect ending the conflict. Russia failed to intervene on either occasion, despite its collective security commitments to Yerevan. Armenian voters have not forgiven Moscow for its betrayal.