观点乌克兰战争

Peace in Ukraine will be elusive until one side makes a military breakthrough

Neither has the incentive to commit to a long-term settlement without a clearer view on the likely course of the war
The writer is emeritus professor of war studies at King’s College London

From almost the moment the war in Ukraine began, diplomats have been at work trying to end it. The UN Security Council has deliberated. Vladimir Putin has had regular telephone discussions with western leaders in which they urge him to stop his aggression or at least facilitate humanitarian relief for those suffering under the weight of Russian bombardments. He then in turn explains how they fail to understand Ukraine’s responsibility for these tragic events.

Israel’s prime minister Naftali Bennett visited Moscow to explore a peace initiative some weeks ago, but that now seems to be in abeyance. The only talks that hold any real promise are those that take place regularly between Ukrainian and Russian teams. The most recent of these was in Istanbul. But here too there has been little tangible progress.  

For now neither side has an incentive to commit to a long-term settlement. They are waiting for military breakthroughs and a clearer view on the likely course of the war. Should the prospect be one of a long stalemate, then both might feel obliged to compromise. As they wait for news from the front, all they can do is to urge each other to be more “realistic” in their expectations.

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