Two weeks after Russian president Vladimir Putin launched his invasion of Ukraine last February, he assured the women of Russia that neither conscripts nor reservists would be sent to the front. Only professional military personnel would be fighting, he promised.
This week, however, he announced a mobilisation that could send up to 1mn Russian men to the battlefields in Ukraine in coming months. The Kremlin has also announced sham referendums in the Ukrainian territory occupied by Moscow that may result in those areas being annexed to Russia next week, and Putin has threatened to use nuclear weapons to defend them. The Russian leader’s reckless moves have one goal: to turn the tables in a war that he is losing. These actions are unlikely to deliver victory, but they do increase the risk of a potential collision between Russia and Nato.
Putin’s original plan — to take Kyiv in three days — was thwarted by the fierce resistance of the Ukrainians and by western support for Kyiv. Now we are seeing plan B, formed in response to developments on the ground. During the summer, Russia concentrated its forces and firepower in the Donbas, in eastern Ukraine. Annexing this region and other occupied territory in the south will allow Putin to claim he can now use all means necessary — including nuclear weapons — to protect these new regions of Russia, should Kyiv try to retake them.