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Can generative AI’s stimulating powers extend to productivity?

ChatGPT and similar software could prove transformative but we should temper our optimism
Increasingly sophisticated algorithms can produce better and better outcomes, but no one knows how this will translate into greater productivity

Generative AI models, such as ChatGPT, will supposedly one day replace most humans at writing copy. In the meantime, though, humans are spending an awful lot of time writing about generative AI. Every day, announcements arrive boasting about how start-ups a, b and c are applying the technology to industry x, y and z. Global venture investment may have fallen 35 per cent to $415bn last year, but money is still gushing into hot, generative AI start-ups.

For years, machine-learning researchers have been writing increasingly impressive algorithms, devouring vast amounts of data and massive computing power, enabling them to do increasingly impressive things: winning chess and Go matches against the strongest human players, translating between languages in real time and modelling protein structures, for example. But 2022 marked a breakout year for generative AI as the San Francisco-based research company OpenAI, and others, opened up the technology for ordinary users.

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