观点欧元区

Forced borrowing: the WMD of fiscal policy
欧洲应该强迫借贷


巴黎OFCE前任和现任总裁、Generali总裁:欧洲命运未卜,各国政府必须拿出曾在战争及和平时期都用得很好的财政武器:强迫借贷,包括强迫纳税人借钱给政府。

A spectre is haunting Europe – the spectre of sovereign default. All the powers of old Europe have entered into a holy alliance to exorcise this spectre: Brussels and Frankfurt, Angela Merkel and Nicolas Sarkozy, French socialists and German Christian Democrats. Churchillian doctors, they prescribe blood, sweat and tears – fiscal consolidation, tax increases and spending cuts. They swear, for the umpteenth time, that they will never surrender: Greece will be saved, Italy and Spain will not be abandoned and the rating of France will not be downgraded. In the face of adversity, they assure us that what cannot be achieved by austerity can be achieved by more austerity. An epidemic of holier-than-thou fiscal virtue is spreading throughout Europe and is fast transforming a series of uncoordinated fiscal retrenchments into a euro-wide contraction with dire implications for growth and employment.

欧洲正被一个幽灵缠身:那就是主权违约的幽灵。旧欧洲的所有大国已组成了一个神圣联盟,力图驱赶这个幽灵:布鲁塞尔和法兰克福,德国总理安格拉•默克尔(Angela Merkel)和法国总统尼古拉•萨科齐(Nicolas Sarkozy),法国社会主义者和德国基督教民主党人。邱吉尔(Churchill)风格的医生们开出了混合着血水、汗水和泪水的处方:财政整固、增税和减支。他们第无数次发誓,自己永远不会投降:希腊将得到拯救,意大利和西班牙不会被抛弃,而法国的信用评级也不会被调降。在逆境面前,他们向我们保证:通过财政紧缩无法实现的目标,可以通过更多的紧缩来实现。一场假仁假义的财政美德疫情正在整个欧洲地区蔓延,并迅速将一系列不协调的财政紧缩,转变成一场横扫欧元区的萎缩,这将对增长和就业造成可怕的影响。

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