The “heavens themselves blaze forth the death of princes”. Among the many weaknesses of the human mind is a tendency to assume that great events must have great causes, and to discount the role of accidents. “For want of a nail the horse was lost” is a far more accurate guide to human events than the scrutiny of heavenly portents. Screw-ups are much more frequent than conspiracies.
“君主们的凋殒才会上感天象”。人类思维有许多弱点，其中之一就是，容易以为重大事件一定有重大原因，而忽视了偶然因素的作用。用“因小失大”的准则来认识人类事件，要比夜观天象准确得多。在更多情况下，人类只是把事情搞砸了，而不是在策划什么阴谋。
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