China pessimists are claiming vindication as growth slows in the world’s second-largest economy. Optimists point out that Beijing has fiscal room to respond but there are risks to any short-term policy measures. A surge in bank-financed investment, for example, could boost growth but it would likely also increase the stock of non-performing loans in the banking system and set back the goal of rebalancing growth by promoting private consumption. An ageing population and a rocky leadership transition strengthen the bears’ case.
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