Climate change or a passing storm? Some investment bankers worry that they are suffering a structural change in their world. Others still believe it is just the cycle. The risk, following strong third-quarter fixed income trading at US investment banks, is that those in the latter camp go easy on cost cutting and chase earnings instead. Citicorp’s fixed income, currencies and commodities revenue was up almost two-thirds year on year; trading at JPMorganand Morgan Stanleywas up one-third. Investors can expect the same as Europe’s investment banks start reporting this week. But it would be wrong to think that things are looking better: trading still relies on highly artificial and temporary stimulus measures.
这究竟是气候发生了变化，还是只是一场过境的风暴？一些投资银行家担心，他们的行业正在经历一场结构性转变。另一些投资银行家则仍认为，投行业只是受到了周期性因素的影响。第三季度，美国投行固定收益类资产交易表现强劲，但相应的风险在于，上述后一类投资银行家会放松成本削减力度并转而追逐利润。花旗集团(Citicorp)固定收益、外汇及大宗商品(FICC)收入同比增长近三分之二；摩根大通(JPMorgan)和摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)增长三分之一。投资者可以想见，当欧洲投行本周开始公布季报时，它们的表现将与美国同行类似。但如果就此认为行业整体形势正在好转，那就错了：交易业务仍仰仗高度人为和短期性的刺激措施。