North Korea has a long tradition of bellicose rhetoric. The threats of nuclear attacks emanating from Pyongyang in recent weeks fit into a pattern of sabre-rattling that is usually aimed at pushing its demands up the US political agenda. The difference this time is that the drums have been beating louder and longer than usual. This heightens the chances of a deadly miscalculation, whether by Pyongyang, Seoul or their allies.
A number of unrelated events is exacerbating tensions. A new generation has taken power in North and South Korea. In normal circumstances this might offer a chance to pursue new avenues for dialogue. Yet there is a danger that communications could break down as new leaders flex their muscles for the home audience. Kim Jong-eun succeeded his father, Kim Jong-il, just over a year ago. He still has much to prove in a country where the military takes precedence over a starving population. To the south, Park Geun-hye, the newly elected president, has authorised the military to respond to North Korean aggression without recourse to “political considerations”. If Pyongyang’s attacks have not led to a full-scale war in the past, this is in part because previous Seoul has shown restraint despite a military itching for retribution.
Second, North Korea’s increasingly strident proclamations come as the US and South Korean military conduct annual drills around the peninsula. This is where accidental clashes could indeed spark grave regional conflict. The exercises are a necessary guarantee of South Korea’s security. But there are certain parts of the Yellow Sea where they could become acts of dangerous brinkmanship. These should be avoided.