Gold analysts are more bearish than at any time since 2002 and expect an average price of $1,219 a troy ounce this year, according to a survey of industry forecasts by the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA).
The modest forecast price – lower than the spot price of $1,240 on Tuesday afternoon – is a reflection of the dismal recent performance of the yellow metal. After 12 consecutive years of price rises, gold tumbled nearly 30 per cent in 2013 amid a sell off in gold-backed exchange traded funds.
Investor pain was matched by analyst red-faces. A year ago, all but five analysts polled by the LBMA predicted that gold would average more than $1,700 for the year. The lowest forecast was $1,600, by René Hochreiter, of the South African advisory firm Allan Hochreiter, and Eddie Nagao of Sumitomo. The average price for gold in 2013 was $1,411.