Latin America, long neglected by Europe and taken for granted by the US, has found a suitor in China. Resource hungry, highly risk tolerant and non-judgmental about matters of social and public policy, China has become the first or second-largest export market for Brazil, Chile, Peru, Uruguay, Cuba and Venezuela. Likewise, it has positioned itself as a principal lender to most of the region’s countries (and often the only lender to those otherwise eschewed by international investors, including Argentina, Venezuela and Cuba).
Less attention, however, has been paid to a vogue among the region’s more revolutionary leaders: invoking the “Chinese model” when discussing the road to economic prosperity. Even in Cuba, where Fidel Castro once likened Deng Xiaoping to “a caricature of Hitler” for his market reforms, the leadership now celebrates the Chinese example.
Resource rich but relatively small, most of Latin America’s far left nations lack the agricultural and manufacturing clout – and the cultural values – to recreate the Chinese economic growth miracle. But duplicating the Chinese political model is possible. Charismatic populism in Latin America – reliant on cults of personality, short-term largesse and ephemeral majorities – shows signs of decline. Populist systems struggle to make necessary long-term decisions that are unpopular, and can end up hamstrung if their charismatic icon dies (as in Venezuela) or their money runs out (as in Argentina).