For unreconstructed efficient market theorists, bubbles do not exist. For semi-reconstructed ones, they exist but, as former Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan claimed in the late 1990s, they are perceptible only after the fact. To spot a bubble in advance, he declared, requires a judgment that hundreds of thousands of informed investors have it all wrong.
对于顽固守旧的有效市场理论者而言,泡沫并不存在。对于半开明的人来说,泡沫存在,但如美联储(Fed)前主席艾伦•格林斯潘(Alan Greenspan)上世纪90年代末的断言,泡沫只有在成为既成事实后才会被察觉。他声称,想提前发觉泡沫,要求拥有超强的判断力,在成千上万拥有知识和信息的投资者全都搞错的时候,做出正确判断。
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