An ambitious Pacific Rim trade deal being touted by US President Barack Obama would add just 0.15 per cent annually to US economic output after 15 years and contribute to a loss of politically sensitive manufacturing jobs, according to an official study of its economic impact that is likely to fuel criticism of the pact.
Mr Obama has put the Trans-Pacific Partnership with Japan and 10 other countries at the centre of his second-term economic agenda and argued that it is needed for the US to get ahead of China in writing the rules of the road for global commerce.
But his administration is facing an uphill battle to secure approval from Congress for the deal before he leaves office in January. With all remaining combatants in the battle to succeed Mr Obama expressing scepticism about the TPP, the broad view is that the next president is unlikely to rush to make it a reality if it does not pass through Congress by then.