It has been over three years since Russia seized Crimea and launched a proxy war in eastern Ukraine. There are few signs that the war will end. Russia-backed forces are either digging in or pushing forward and Europe’s response is not working. Fresh thinking is required to initiate a ceasefire and end the killing.
France and Germany’s efforts to de-escalate the war through the so-called Minsk agreements and the Normandy format have kept Russia at the negotiating table. European and American economic sanctions signalled to Moscow that smashing the international rules-based order comes with consequences.
However, if a war of attrition is aimed at wearing down opponents and testing who has the strongest mettle, we are now seeing Russia wage a “cold war of attrition” against the west. Moscow’s tactic is to divide transatlantic unity, especially over sanctions policy. In recent weeks I have begun to fear Vladimir Putin, the Russian president, could succeed. The consequences if he does would be tragic.