Will there be a new financial crisis?
No, if we define a financial crisis as one in which policymakers need to rescue, or resolve, more than one globally significant financial institution at the same time. But we will see periods of turbulence in financial markets and a number of national economies. A reason for optimism is that global financial institutions’ balance sheets have strengthened substantially since the 2008 crisis. Reasons for pessimism are that interest rates remain low, debt levels exceptional and many asset prices high. Vulnerabilities include several emerging markets, China, Brexit-hit Britain, Italian sovereign debt and US stocks.
Martin Wolf
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