Behind President Donald Trump’s trade war with China lies a deeper issue. Many in Washington, both Republicans and Democrats, fear that the rise of China will spell the end of the American era. This exaggerated fear can itself become a cause of conflict.
First, China’s current economic challenge is not as serious as suggested. “Purchasing power parity”, often used to suggest that the Chinese economy became larger than the American economy in 2014, is an economist’s measure for comparing estimates of welfare. It is not appropriate for measuring power. During a recent trip to Beijing, several business people told me that they thought real growth was less than half the official figure. So while many economists expect China eventually to pass the US as the world’s largest economy, the estimated date varies from 2030 to 2040 and depends on future Chinese growth rates. Official numbers show them slowing.
Economic might, however, is not the only measure of geopolitical importance. China is also well behind the US in military and soft-power indices. American military expenditure is three times that of China, and while Chinese military capabilities have been increasing in recent years, analysts who look carefully at the military balance conclude that China will not be able to exclude the US from the western Pacific. Meanwhile, the “Soft Power 30” index published by Portlands ranks China in 27th place, while the US is placed in the top four.