US president Donald Trump has said that trade wars are easy to win. Reality is usually far messier. The chances are that he was bluffing when he threatened on Sunday to escalate tariffs on Chinese imports this coming Friday — two days after a 100-strong Chinese delegation was due to arrive in Washington for what was billed as the closing phase of a US-China trade deal.
Now the Chinese may not come at all, or arrive in smaller numbers. Few countries, let alone emerging global powers, like to negotiate under duress.
China will have to weigh the risk of losing face if it shows up against the spectre of a dramatic escalation in the US-China trade war if it does not. Mr Trump, on the other hand, has shown that he will readily swap a stance of “maximum pressure” for a Taylor Swift-style “Love Story” as caprice demands.