This is not a forecast. But I think it is a plausible scenario. After initial relief at the emergency deal struck last week by EU finance ministers, investors will study the small print and conclude the rescue package will have no macroeconomic impact.
The main elements of the deal were a credit line from the European Stability Mechanism, credit support from the European Investment Bank, and reinsurance for national unemployment schemes.
The dispute about whether a loan from the ESM bailout fund should come with strings attached will be forgotten. Italy does not want one anyway. Giuseppe Conte, prime minister, has concluded that his government would not survive the humiliation. In any case, the European Central Bank has done enough to forestall a sovereign liquidity crisis this year. The ECB’s pandemic emergency purchase programme trumps all else.