The history of China’s stock markets is one of successive booms that ended in tears, most recently in 2015, when the benchmark dropped 47 per cent in a matter of months. But evidence is mounting that there is something new about this latest rally, which means it could have much further to run. It is worth considering whether this time really could be different.
To be sure, the upswing has echoes of the surge and subsequent collapse in share prices five years ago, which spooked not only the ruling Communist party but also global markets. Much like in 2015, cheerleading by state media has encouraged investors to pile into equities, sending a clear signal to a market already primed for gains on the back of a surprisingly robust performance during the Covid-19 lockdown.
Yet the differences are also significant. First, although margin financing has risen fast this year, it remains well below 2015 levels and as a share of overall trading in the A-share market it is at one of its lowest levels. By the middle of 2015, regulators had grown so concerned by the explosion in trading with borrowed money that they curbed the practice, pulling the rug from under the stock market.