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Jenga-like structure builds in credit markets

Investor optimism priced into bonds contingent on central bank support

For one influential watcher of the credit world, conditions in the corporate bond market are starting to look unnerving.

Matt Mish, who heads up UBS’s credit strategy team, likens the current state of the market to a tower of Jenga blocks. At the moment, crucial support is being provided by central bank buying across the globe, holding borrowing costs low and providing a backstop if investor demand falls. As that support is removed, piece by piece, the tower could begin to wobble.

“At some point, investors are going to realise that the Jenga puzzle is losing more and more pieces,” said Mr Mish. “It doesn’t mean the tower will definitely collapse but it has the potential to create more volatility.”

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