Anyone who has experienced Brexit in Britain or Trumpism in the US knows what a divided society feels like. Spending time in Barcelona last year, I recognised that atmosphere. Catalonia has been split down the middle by the region’s quest for independence from Spain. The resulting quarrels break up Sunday family lunches, or end life-long friendships.
No new state has emerged in western Europe since Malta became independent from the UK in 1964, but now there are three candidates. Scotland’s parliamentary elections on May 6 are effectively a referendum on independence, with the secessionist Scottish National Party expected to win a majority. That same month, Northern Ireland marks its centenary amid a Brexit-inspired push towards Irish unification.
None of these new states is likely to emerge anytime soon, if ever. London and Madrid can block Scottish and Catalan independence. Very few people in either part of Ireland are keen to hurry unification. Instead, these issues will probably stagnate into frozen conflicts, allowing polarisation to seep into everyday life.