In 2022 we were describing China’s property crash as “a slow-motion financial crisis”. In retrospect it wasn’t all that slow-motion. The chart below is from Barclays’ 2024 Credit Outlook:
More than half of China’s top developers followed Evergrande into default after Beijing moved in 2020 to restrict new borrowing, unravelling a funding model that was built on dollar-denominated high-yield debt and bankrolled by local government financing vehicles.
Since the beginning of 2020, at least 60 China property issuers with more than $140bn in outstanding dollar bonds have defaulted, Barclays calculates:
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