Over the next 12 months, voters in countries representing more than half of the world’s population will get the chance to head to the ballot box — a record-breaking year for democracy. And yet in many places, the voting bloc with the most influence on the outcome won’t be the one backing the right-wing candidate or the left-wing one, the populist or the establishment runner. Instead it will be a different kind of group entirely: non-voters. On November 5, Americans look very likely to face the same choice as they did four years ago, though the candidates might seem considerably less appealing this time around even to their previous supporters. President Joe Biden, who currently has approval ratings of 38 per cent (even lower than Donald Trump’s rating at the same point in his presidency) would be 86 years old by the time his second term was out, while Trump himself, who would be 82, currently faces 91 counts of felony across four criminal charges.
Although turnout jumped to the highest level in decades in 2020, that was only to 62.8 per cent of the voting-age public, according to Pew research. That both of the likely candidates for 2024 are viewed so negatively by huge portions of the population is likely to keep many away from polling booths come November.
And while Britain’s record might historically have been better than America’s, it now ranks two places lower than the US in Pew’s rankings (it is 33rd, just below Colombia, with only 62.3 per cent of the voting-age population having turned up at the last election). As in the US, a lack of enthusiasm for either of the main candidates — recent polls show prime minister Rishi Sunak has a favourability rating of 24 per cent and opposition leader Keir Starmer at 30 per cent — is likely to keep voters at home.