How stands the world economy? The answer, as my colleague Tej Parikh noted recently, is that it is confusing. That should not be surprising. Quite apart from some evident macroeconomic uncertainties — disturbing trends in fiscal deficits and debts in many important countries, to take one example — we are witnessing two huge events: the abdication of the US as global hegemon and the uncontrolled onset of what could prove to be the most important of all humanity’s technological innovations, artificial intelligence. No wonder we are confused. The remarkable thing, however, is how well the world economy has coped with the shocks and the uncertainty, at least so far.
This is a leading theme of both the introductory speech of Kristalina Georgieva, IMF managing director, to this year’s annual meetings in Washington and the latest World Economic Outlook. The big conclusion is that the IMF sees growth slowing relatively little this year and next. Needless to say, any such conclusion is itself highly uncertain. But it is consistent with what has happened so far this year, despite the turmoil.
Why has the world economy been relatively robust? Georgieva (and the WEO) offer four explanations: less severe tariff outcomes than feared; private sector adaptability; supportive financial conditions; and improved policy fundamentals.