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Germany’s ‘very weak start’ to 2026 puts recovery in doubt

Manufacturing and trade figures dating from before Iran war disappoint

Weak export and industrial data has cast doubt on the strength of Germany’s recovery from years of stagnation, even before any shock from the recent surge in energy prices.

The “entire German economy” had a “very weak start to the new year”, said ING’s global head of macro Carsten Brzeski on Tuesday after trade data for January showed a 2.3 per cent monthly fall in exports and 5.9 per cent drop in imports.

The larger than expected declines came a day after Germany’s statistical office reported that output in its all-important manufacturing sector fell for the second consecutive month in January.

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