When Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, Donald Trump hailed the move as “genius”. In practice, Vladimir Putin’s war was our age’s costliest great power error until Trump launched Operation Epic Fury three months ago.
Both men gambled on a weak adversary and assumed victory within days. Each is burdening their countries with costs that will persist many years after they have lost power. As case studies of how to throw away strong hands, Putin and Trump are without peer. As the lap into which most of their cards have fallen, China is the main beneficiary.
Those on America’s hawkish right protest that Iran’s regime and Ukraine’s are incomparable. One is a nasty theocracy; the other is a functioning democracy (that is nowadays often less corrupt than Washington). But strategy is measured in real-world outcomes, not wishfulness.