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The surprising power of simple predictions
为什么简单的预测方法往往有奇效?

Experts can be sidetracked by elaborate ideas, overlooking the direct approach
哈福德:即便是专家——不,应该说特别是专家——也会被高深的思想牵着鼻子走,从而忽略了简单、直接的方法。

For an academic researcher who first trained as a philosopher, then as a psychologist, Robyn Dawes was a practical fellow. He would tell a story from his time working in a psychiatric ward in the late 1950s. “There was a client who had this delusion, and the delusion was that he was growing breasts.” The man was locked in a secure ward while the psychiatrists pondered the reason for this fascinating delusion; they suspected that it was most likely the traumatic impact of the recent and shocking death of a parent.

作为先后接受过哲学和心理学教育的学术研究人员,罗宾•道斯(Robyn Dawes)是个实干派。他会讲起上世纪50年代末在精神病房工作时经历的一件事。“有个患者得了妄想症,他觉得自己长出了乳房。”该男子被安排在一间封闭病房里,精神病医生们试图找出是什么原因导致了如此稀奇的妄想症,他们推测最大的可能是,双亲中的一方在近期猝然离世给他造成了创伤性影响。

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