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After more than three months of Israel’s devastating Gaza war, Arab states are developing a plan they hope will bring an end to the conflict and lay the foundations for a sustainable peace. At the core of the US-backed initiative is to offer Israel a prize it has long sought: the normalisation of relations with Arab and Muslim states, including the grand prize of Saudi Arabia. In return, Israel would have to commit to “irreversible” steps towards the establishment of a viable Palestinian state.
在以色列对加沙进行了三个多月的毁灭性战争之后，阿拉伯国家正在制定一项计划，希望能够结束冲突，为实现可持续和平奠定基础。美国支持的这项倡议的核心，是向以色列提供一个它长期以来一直在寻求的奖赏：与阿拉伯和穆斯林国家的关系正常化，包括沙特阿拉伯这个“大奖”。作为回报，以色列必须承诺采取“不可逆转”的措施，建立一个能独立发展的巴勒斯坦国。
The premise of the plan, which is expected to be unveiled within weeks, is simple. There can only be a durable peace in the Middle East if the protracted Israeli-Palestinian conflict, which has fuelled instability in the region for 75 years, is resolved in a manner that delivers Palestinians the dignity, freedom and homeland they have long sought. But the challenge of securing any such agreement — something that has eluded some of the world’s sharpest diplomatic minds over the years — is anything but.
该计划预计将在数周内公布，其前提很简单。只有以一种使巴勒斯坦人获得他们长期寻求的尊严、自由和家园的方式解决75年来加剧该地区不稳定的旷日持久的以色列-巴勒斯坦冲突，中东才能实现持久和平。但要达成这样的协议——多年来，世界上一些最厉害的外交家一直未能做到这一点——绝非易事。
For a start, there needs to be an end to Israel’s assault against Hamas in Gaza which has killed more than 25,000 people, according to Palestinian officials. The militant group must also release the remaining hostages held in the strip.
首先，以色列必须结束对加沙地带哈马斯的袭击。据巴勒斯坦官员称，以色列对哈马斯的袭击已造成2.5万多人死亡。该激进组织也必须释放被关押在加沙地带的其余人质。
That appears remote, however. Hamas is still fighting. And Israeli premier Benjamin Netanyahu repeatedly rules out a ceasefire deal with Hamas, even one that would secure the hostages’ freedom. He insists only the destruction of the militants can bring back the hostages and guarantee Israel’s security.
然而，这似乎还遥遥无期。哈马斯仍在战斗。以色列总理本雅明•内塔尼亚胡(Benjamin Netanyahu)一再排除与哈马斯达成停火协议的可能性，即使是能确保人质自由的协议。他坚持认为，只有消灭激进分子才能把人质带回来，才能保证以色列的安全。
Netanyahu also rejects any discussion on a two-state solution, even as the US and Israel’s other allies push for it as part of a longer-term political vision for the region. Indeed, he boasts of preventing the establishment of a Palestinian state during the 15 years he has towered over Israeli politics and overseen the creeping annexation of the occupied West Bank. On Sunday, he said he would not “compromise on full Israeli security control of all territory west of the Jordan River”, an area that includes the West Bank and Gaza.
内塔尼亚胡还拒绝就两国间的解决方案进行任何讨论，尽管美国和以色列的其他盟友正在推动这一方案，使其作为该地区长期政治愿景的一部分。事实上，在他掌控以色列政坛的15年里，他一直吹嘘自己阻止了巴勒斯坦建国，并监督了对被占领约旦河西岸的逐步吞并。周日，他表示，他不会“在以色列对约旦河以西所有领土实施全面安全控制的问题上妥协”，该地区包括约旦河西岸和加沙。
Netanyahu is not the only obstacle to progress. In a nation traumatised and enraged by Hamas’s horrific October 7 attack, it is unlikely that any mainstream Israeli leader is ready to advocate working towards a Palestinian state.
内塔尼亚胡并不是取得进展的唯一障碍。在一个因哈马斯10月7日的恐怖袭击而受到创伤并感到愤怒的国家，不太可能有任何以色列主流领导人愿意倡导为建立一个巴勒斯坦国而努力。
There would also need to be a wholesale revamp of the failed Palestinian leadership, to produce one with the legitimacy to engage credibly with Israel and work to guarantee both Palestinians’ and Israelis’ security. Moreover, Hamas’s military capabilities have been severely degraded in Gaza but it will continue to work against a two-state solution.
此外，还需要对失败的巴勒斯坦领导层进行一次大规模的改革，以建立一个具有合法性的领导层，与以色列进行可信的接触，并努力保证巴勒斯坦人和以色列人的安全。另外，哈马斯在加沙的军事能力已被严重削弱，但它将继续反对两国解决方案。
Still, for all the hurdles and pitfalls, it is vital to shift the Israeli narrative towards a sustainable resolution to the conflict. The prospect of Saudi Arabia, and other states, normalising ties with the Jewish state is one of the few incentives that could shift the mood.
尽管存在种种障碍和隐患，但将以色列的叙事转向对冲突的可持续解决方案至关重要。沙特阿拉伯和其他国家与这个犹太国家关系正常化的前景，是可能改变这种情绪的少数激励因素之一。
It will require a sustained and determined US diplomatic effort, as well as responsible leadership from both Israelis and Palestinians — all before the US presidential elections in November. As well as offering carrots, the US and European governments must also be willing to use their sticks to convince Israeli leaders that a Palestinian state ultimately serves their own interests.
这将需要美国持续而坚定的外交努力，以及以色列和巴勒斯坦双方负责任的领导——所有这些都要在11月美国总统大选之前完成。除了提供激励措施外，美国和欧洲政府还必须愿意动用大棒，让以色列领导人相信，建立一个巴勒斯坦国最终是符合他们的利益的。
As challenging as it is, the only way to counter Hamas and the violent extremism it champions is if Palestinians have reason to hope for their future. Israel has dealt Hamas a severe blow but it cannot get rid of it as a movement or ideology. Only Palestinians can. If Israel’s leaders choose to ignore that reality, they are condemning their nation, and future generations of Israelis and Palestinians, to endless cycles of violence.
尽管困难重重，但对抗哈马斯及其支持的暴力极端主义的唯一方法是，让巴勒斯坦人对自己的未来抱有希望。以色列给了哈马斯一个沉重的打击，但无法消除其作为一个运动或意识形态的存在。只有巴勒斯坦人可以。如果以色列领导人选择无视这一现实，他们将使自己的国家以及以色列和巴勒斯坦未来的几代人陷入无休止的暴力循环。