US stocks hit two-year highs and government bond yields soared on Tuesday as investors reckoned that a tax deal between President Barack Obama and congressional Republicans amounted to a “second stimulus” that will boost growth in 2011.
The unexpected inclusion of a $120bn payroll tax holiday in an agreement between the president and the Republicans to extend all the Bush-era tax cuts prompted economists to increase sharply their growth forecasts for 2011.
If the deal passes Congress and there are no offsetting budget cuts, the US will be the only large industrialised country not to tighten fiscal policy in 2011. The federal deficit is likely to remain 9-10 per cent of gross domestic product.
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