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Emmanuel Macron’s remark last week that sending western troops to Ukraine could not be ruled out was immediately slapped down by many European counterparts — notably German Chancellor Olaf Scholz. Russia’s Vladimir Putin still seized on the French president’s statement to make his most explicit threat yet of nuclear conflict. On Tuesday, Macron said he stood by his comment, urging European allies not to be “cowards” now that “war is back on our soil”.
埃马纽埃尔•马克龙(Emmanuel Macron)上周表示，不排除向乌克兰派遣西方军队的可能性，这一言论立即遭到了许多欧洲同行的抨击，尤其是德国总理奥拉夫•朔尔茨(Olaf Scholz)。不过，俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔•普京(Vladimir Putin)仍是抓住了法国总统的声明，发出了迄今为止最明确的核冲突威胁。周二，马克龙表示，他坚持自己的言论，敦促欧洲盟友不要成为“懦夫”，因为“战争又回到了我们的土地上”。
The French president’s underlying message — that Nato members must be ready to do more to help Ukraine against resurgent Russian forces — is well founded. But this should be by sending more arms, not troops. His public talk of boots on the ground has wrongfooted allies and laid bare strategic divisions, particularly with Germany, over military assistance to Kyiv — just when a united front is needed.
法国总统传达的基本信息——北约(NATO)成员国必须准备好采取更多行动，帮助乌克兰抵御卷土重来的俄罗斯军队——是有充分根据的。但这应该是通过派遣更多的武器，而不是军队。他关于派遣地面部队的公开言论让盟友措手不及，并暴露了在向乌克兰提供军事援助问题上的战略分歧，尤其是与德国的分歧——而此时正是需要统一战线的时候。
French officials said Macron’s talk of troops was intended to introduce some ambiguity for Moscow over what Nato members might be ready to do, and he was referring to western forces carrying out non-combat functions behind the Ukrainian front lines. The French leader has a point that Ukraine’s allies have for too long allowed Putin a monopoly on threats of escalation.
法国官员表示，马克龙谈论军队的目的是让俄罗斯对北约成员国可能准备做的事情产生一些模糊认识，而且他指的是在乌克兰前线后方执行非战斗职能的西方军队。这位法国领导人的观点是，乌克兰的盟友长期以来一直允许普京垄断升级威胁。
The problem is that many counterparts have legitimate concerns that even limited troop deployments would put Nato on the path to direct confrontation with Moscow. Though they have stressed the need to aid Kyiv and asked voters to bear higher energy costs, many western leaders — not just Scholz — will fear that any talk of sending soldiers could turn sentiment against the war. It plays, too, into Moscow’s bogus narrative that this is a Nato-provoked conflict. It might also be misread by a conspiracy-minded Kremlin as evidence that western leaders are, indeed, plotting something broader.
问题是，许多西方领导人有理由担心，即使是有限的部队部署也会使北约走上与俄罗斯直接对抗的道路。虽然他们强调了援助乌克兰的必要性，并要求选民承担更高的能源成本，但许多西方领导人——不仅仅是朔尔茨——都会担心，任何关于派兵的言论都可能会让民众对战争产生反感。这也正中俄罗斯的下怀：这是北约挑起的冲突。这还可能被有阴谋论思想的克里姆林宫误读为西方领导人确实在策划更广泛阴谋的证据。
With US arms deliveries held up by political blocks, and continuing shortfalls in European production, the priority must be to ensure Ukraine receives the weaponry it needs this year. This covers everything from scarce artillery shells to cruise missiles, fighters and air defence. Recent mutual accusations by France and Germany that the other is not doing enough have some substance, but are a fruitless distraction.
由于美国的武器交付受到政治阻挠，而欧洲的生产又持续不足，因此必须优先确保乌克兰今年获得所需的武器装备。这涵盖了从稀缺的炮弹到巡航导弹、战斗机和防空系统的方方面面。法国和德国最近相互指责对方做得不够，这虽有一定实质内容，但却只是徒劳。
Over the past week Macron appears, rightly, to have dropped objections to using EU funds to buy weaponry for Ukraine outside the block. His previous insistence that European cash should go only towards rebooting Europe’s defence industry has been overtaken by Ukraine’s urgent need. On Tuesday, he pledged that France would contribute to a Czech plan to buy 800,000 shells on the world market — and would allow the European Peace Facility, a joint EU fund, to finance part of it.
过去一周，马克龙似乎明智地放弃了反对使用欧盟资金为乌克兰在欧盟以外购买武器的立场。他之前坚持认为，欧洲的资金应该只用于重启欧洲的国防工业，但乌克兰的迫切需求已超过了这一点。周二，他承诺法国将为捷克在世界市场上购买80万枚炮弹的计划提供资金，并将允许欧盟联合基金欧洲和平基金(European Peace Facility)为该计划提供部分资金。
Scholz, for his part, should lift his opposition to sending Taurus missiles, which have a longer range than cruise missiles supplied by France and the UK and which Ukraine is crying out for. His objection that German support staff would have to accompany them to Ukraine was contradicted by military officers in a conversation that was embarrassingly eavesdropped on by Moscow. And though the chancellor worries Kyiv might use them to hit targets inside Russia, Ukraine has respected limits imposed by Britain and France on how it can use their missiles.
朔尔茨则应取消反对派遣“金牛座”(Taurus)导弹的立场，这种导弹比法国和英国提供的巡航导弹射程更远，而乌克兰正急需这种导弹。他曾反对德国的支持人员必须随同导弹前往乌克兰，但在一次被俄罗斯尴尬窃听的谈话中，他的反对意见遭到了军官们的反驳。虽然德国总理担心乌克兰会用这些导弹打击俄罗斯境内的目标，但乌克兰一直遵守着英法两国对其导弹使用方式的限制。
Perhaps Macron’s most striking statement was that the “defeat” of Russia in Ukraine was now “indispensable to security and stability in Europe”. From a leader who called in 2022 for the west to avoid “humiliating” Moscow — and who has gone out of his way to understand and reason with Putin — this is a salutary message. Kyiv’s allies need a strategy to achieve this goal, without leading to escalation that spirals out of control.
马克龙最引人注目的言论或许是，俄罗斯在乌克兰战争中的“失败”对“欧洲的安全与稳定是不可或缺的”。这些话能从一个曾在2022年呼吁西方不要“羞辱”俄罗斯——并努力理解普京、与普京讲道理——的领导人口中说出，是一个有益的信息。乌克兰的盟友们需要制定一个战略来实现这一目标，同时又不能导致局势升级而失控。