A slew of economic data has recently surprised to the upside. According to the purchasing managers’ index for the eurozone, the bloc’s economy is growing again. The US had a bumper jobs and retail spending report for January. Investors are now wondering whether the recession they had come to accept as inevitable is likely after all.
The causes of the potential recession differed around the world. In the US and UK, central banks had openly stated that a recession would be necessary to drive away inflation. In the eurozone, the risk centred on gas shortages and energy rationing. And China looked set for a long and arduous journey out of Covid.
Fast forward a few months and the picture has changed. China has reopened rapidly and, it seems, successfully. It is now experiencing the boom of pent-up consumer demand that other major economies experienced early last year. With little sign of inflationary pressures in China, the authorities can let the recovery run, and they are likely to announce additional stimulus.