European leaders will face a historic decision at their next summit in December. After years of prevarication, they must decide whether the EU is finally ready to accept new members. Geopolitical shocks such as the war in Ukraine, but also the growing prospect of a long-term rivalry with China, have precipitated this moment of truth. Yet the real dilemma lies elsewhere. As the EU charts a path for the accession of new countries including Ukraine, Moldova and Bosnia and Herzegovina, the question of Turkey looms large.
Had Turkey pursued its reform agenda, the task facing EU leaders would have been much simpler. Already a candidate country since 1999, Ankara’s progress could then have been judged on the same merits as the remaining members of this club of aspirant nations. However, over the past decade, Turkey has drifted away from European norms on democracy and the rule of law. This backtracking stands in contrast to the logic of EU enlargement, which is essentially predicated on the will to reform. The lack of a domestic consensus in Turkey for reform, as evidenced by the May 2023 elections, shrouds the future of Turkey-EU relations in uncertainty.
This uncertainty has persisted, as there has been no tangible progress on the Turkey-EU agenda for years. But Europe can no longer postpone the inevitable. Making a historic opening to new nations while sidestepping the issue of Turkey would be a truly superficial outcome for December’s summit.