The wise second-in-command to Warren Buffett at Berkshire Hathaway, Charlie Munger — who died this week aged 99 — was a pioneer in blending investment and psychology. He warned about a “Lollapalooza effect”: the tendency for emotions and cognitive biases to reinforce each other and drive herd mentality. As stockpickers mull their strategies for 2024, many are wondering how much of this year’s buying frenzy over the so-called Magnificent Seven stocks — Apple, Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, Tesla, and Nvidia — is indeed mass hysteria, or actually grounded in reality.
沃伦•巴菲特(Warren Buffett)在伯克希尔•哈撒韦(Berkshire Hathaway)的明智副手，查理•芒格(Charlie Munger)，本周去世，享年99岁，他是将投资和心理学融合的先驱者。他警告称存在“洛拉帕卢扎效应”：情绪和认知偏见相互强化，推动群体心态。当股票选择者思考他们2024年的策略时，许多人都在想今年对所谓的“瑰丽七股”(Magnificent Seven)——苹果(Apple)、Alphabet、微软(Microsoft)、亚马逊(Amazon)、Meta、特斯拉(Tesla)和英伟达(Nvidia)——的购买狂潮到底有多少实际上是源于群体癫狂效应，或者实际上是基于现实的。