FT商学院

FT writers’ predictions for the world in 2024
FT作者对2024年世界的预测

Forecasts for the new year, from who will win the US election to whether Musk’s X is heading for bankruptcy and the future of the Parthenon marbles
对新的一年的预测,从谁将赢得美国大选,到马斯克的X是否会破产,再到帕台农神庙大理石的未来。

The Financial Times’s team of crystal ball gazers had their best year for a while in 2023, with only three wrong answers — though we got these pretty wrong. The S&P 500 did not fall by more than 10 per cent, but climbed over 20 per cent (though driven mostly by just seven tech stocks). Europe didn’t experience blackouts, though we said this would happen only in a very cold winter (it wasn’t). And there wasn’t a string of defaults in Africa, though Ethiopia did default this week.

2023年,英国《金融时报》的预测团队取得了近年来最好的成绩,只有三个错误的答案——尽管我们对这些答案相当错误。标普500指数没有下跌超过10%,而是上涨了超过20%(尽管主要是由七只科技股推动)。欧洲没有经历停电,尽管我们说这只会在一个非常寒冷的冬天发生(事实并非如此)。非洲也没有出现一连串的违约事件,尽管埃塞俄比亚本周确实违约了。

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