Having covered Indian elections since the 1990s, I have never seen a contest more predictable than the one beginning later this month. The only point still in debate is how big Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s re-election victory will be.
Modi’s critics say he has mobilised the machinery of the state to stack the election in his own favour, deploying investigators and other government agents to muzzle opponents. Yet there seems to be little public backlash over these methods, raising a larger question: how did such a vibrant democracy come to accept strongman rule?
I think what we are seeing is a kind of tacit deal, in which swing voters accept a democratic recession under Modi, so long as he delivers economic progress. While the hardcore supporters of his Bharatiya Janata party were always going to stand by their leader and the party’s Hindutva ideology, Modi has significantly expanded its traditional base by offering a deal that appeals to an increasing number of young and new voters.