Despite crude oil’s combustible properties, armed conflict near large oil producers — Russia and now Iran — has not ignited a sustained rise in price. Brent crude fell on Monday, struggling to stay above $90 a barrel, after this weekend’s attack on Israel by Iran.
Why is the oil market so relaxed in the face of escalating regional tensions? The oil price may increasingly self-regulate in price terms. Higher oil prices just stoke fears of a reacceleration of broader price inflation. This would remove one of the factors behind the recent rally in equity prices. It is unlikely that commodity prices would continue to climb should central banks start to play down the prospect of interest rate cuts.
World stock prices have rallied a fifth since October, anticipating an inflection point for interest rates. That hope has already dimmed. US Federal Reserve chair Jay Powell this month hinted that the central bank would move slowly. US bond yields, anticipating problems, have risen this year. Interest rate traders anticipate less than half as many reductions by global central banks as at the beginning of the year.