Iran’s missile and drone assault on Israel marks a dangerous turning point in the hostilities triggered by Hamas’s October 7 attack and Israel’s retaliatory offensive in Gaza. It has thrust the decades-old shadow war between the Islamic republic and the Jewish state into full view, and edged the Middle East ever closer to a full-blown regional conflict that would have catastrophic consequences for the region and beyond.
Tehran took a reckless gamble with the first direct assault on Israel from Iranian soil, a retaliation for the attack on its consular compound in Damascus, which killed seven Revolutionary Guards. Both Israel and Iran are now seeking to restore their deterrence with increasingly risky escalation. They must be persuaded to stop.
The old rules of the Middle East have been overturned since Hamas’s October 7 assault, which killed 1,200 people, with another 250 taken hostage. Iran was not involved in the Hamas attack, according to the US, but its proxies in the region have been trading fire with Israel in recent months. Tensions have been high but both Iran and Israel have wanted to avoid a direct confrontation.