This is part of a Data Points series on the UK election
There is a distinct possibility that the UK general election on July 4 produces the following outcome. Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour party wins a record 450 seats and a huge majority on a lower share of the vote than Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour achieved in 2017. Meanwhile, the Liberal Democrats win the second-largest number seats, becoming the official opposition, despite finishing fourth on vote share behind both the Conservatives and Nigel Farage’s Reform UK.
If that sounds far-fetched, it is well within the range of current polling. Even with a less extreme result, it is likely that the Lib Dems could win around 50 seats on a lower share of the vote than Reform, which ends up with a few seats at best.
